I know there seems to be more animosity between the Tea Partiers and the leftish Republicans. It’s only a matter of time before Tea Partiers join with the Democrats to outvote the normal Republicans. So it would seem inevitable that Tea Partiers will form a new party.
Firstly the new Tea Party wouldn’t just draw voters from the Republican Party. Some voters might go “Ooh, shiny and new,” and come over from the fold of the Democrats. But that’s great, right wingers would say, more conservative voters.
But what they wouldn’t expect is the Canadian experience. Canada has 3 main parties (and the Bloc which only operates in Quebec and doesn’t necessarily support right or left objectives). Of the three main parties, 2 are leftish and one is right wing. Combined the 2 leftish parties get more votes than the right wing. But the right wing gets more total votes than any of the other two parties. So in our three party system, the right wing gets to form the government.
I predict the same thing will happen in the United States if the Tea Party becomes the third party. Only in the case of the U.S., the two right wing parties will lose to the left wing Democrats in the first past the post system.
So what will this lead to? I’ve gotten out my crystal ball to look far into the future. I see the left winning election after election in the United States. In about 100 years, the left will have almost run out of other left wing things to try and will resort to anarchy, the abolition of all government.
Meanwhile in Canada, the right wing will have won election after election and will have almost run out of things to try. So fascism will triumph. With a strong fascist army, Canada will invade the defenceless U.S.
But in order to retain its hold on the U.S., Canada will have to hold free elections. With three right wing parties and three left wing parties and the Bloc the vote could go either way. So past this political singularity, I cannot see any further into the future. Oh to be there in 2111, those will be heady times.
Or maybe Canada and the U.S. will abandon their first past the post political systems. Still that seems less likely than the 2111 political singularity. Imagine, bowing to the will of the people…